U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago state in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., April 6, 2017. Korea Times file

By Jane Han

The mood is picking up again as a second summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is expected soon, but despite what Trump sees as ''tremendous progress,'' denuclearization may not be so realistic, says a prominent North Korean expert.

But there is a way to make it happen, Dr. Han Park, professor emeritus of international affairs at the University of Georgia and founding director of the Center for the Study of Global Issues, said in an interview with The Korea Times.

''It's Trump's abnormality,'' he said. ''His unconventional and unpredictable nature.''

Park, who has served as an unofficial negotiator between the Washington and Pyongyang during past U.S. administrations, stressed that North Korea will not provide what the U.S. wants and the U.S. will not provide what North Korea wants.

''The U.S. will never give North Korea a peace treaty or diplomatic normalization without denuclearization,'' said Park.

''And North Korea will never, ever give up its nuclear capability because that is what they need for national security,'' he said, ''so unless security is guaranteed in the form of a peace treaty, North Korea cannot and will not relinquish its nuclear program.''

But what it can do, Park stressed, is that it can give an appearance of giving it up.

''And if we want to go anywhere toward denuclearization, that appearance should be accepted by the U.S.,'' he said.

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The U.S. has consistently insisted on a complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID), but Trump signaled that he may accept something less at his first meeting with Kim in Singapore.

If Trump calculates that he wants to show the American electorate that he can make a big achievement with Korea and that winning denuclearization will help him domestically in terms of politics and his political posture, he might accept what North Korea proposes as an acceptable level of denuclearization.

''This tug of war can never be resolved with the same old discussion,'' said Park, who has visited Pyongyang more than 50 times. ''Determination from one of the two leaders is needed. One of the two systems must give in to get out of this stalemate.''

However, accepting anything less than CVID may leave Trump facing a significant backlash at home.

''Dealing with the backlash is going to be so difficult that it will be a matter of political determination,'' said Park, who believes that Trump's pragmatic and economic focused politics may lead him to make a controversial and unconventional decision.

With regards to South Korean President Moon Jae-in's involvement, Park says South Korea doesn't have much room to play.

''The U.S. will independently make the call based on its own calculation and interest. Moon does not have persuasive power, authority or influence over American politics,'' he said, stressing that China, on the other hand, will be significant. ''Without Chinese, nothing will happen. China is needed to even to end the war.''

China

China, the U.S. and North Korea are the three signatories to the armistice agreement that ended the fighting in 1953.

In response to critics questioning the North Korea dictator's unprecedented level of cooperation, Park says we need to see the contextual shift.

''Kim Jong-un is different from his father and grandfather,'' he said. ''His mission is economic growth, not legitimization and military growth like his elders. His challenge is economic growth and prosperity so he may very well pursue things differently.''


Jane Han ([email protected]) writes from Seattle.